FC Cincinnati
vs
Philadelphia Union
Garuda Lions Prediction: Philadelphia Union
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.59.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
| Probability | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 20.5% | 55.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.0% | 20.5% | 55.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union match preview
FC Cincinnati faces Philadelphia Union in a match where the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for the visitors, with Philadelphia Union at 56% to win compared to FC Cincinnati's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a significant expectation for goals, as over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 77% and both teams to score at 73%.
Recent form shows FC Cincinnati with mixed results, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Philadelphia Union has been more consistent, achieving four wins and one draw in their last six outings. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with FC Cincinnati at 1.59 and Philadelphia Union at 2.43. In their last ten encounters, FC Cincinnati has secured five wins, while Philadelphia Union has four victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.02
FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings
FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 24.0% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Philadelphia Union | 55.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-3 | 6.8% |
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union stats
FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union recent form
| FC Cincinnati |
WWLLWL |
| Philadelphia Union |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union season so far
FC Cincinnati record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Philadelphia Union | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 5-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Philadelphia Union | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2025-02-07 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Philadelphia Union | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-13 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Leagues Cup | 2-4 |
| 2024-06-19 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2024-02-09 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs | 4-3 |
| 2023-11-26 | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-16 | Philadelphia Union | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.