San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Real Salt Lake
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Salt Lake
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
| Probability | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 28.2% | 36.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.8% | 28.2% | 36.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Salt Lake
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake match preview
The matchup between San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake presents a closely contested scenario, with both teams having a 36% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes is 1.35, while Real Salt Lake has a slightly higher expectation at 1.36.
In terms of recent form, San Jose Earthquakes have recorded one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Real Salt Lake has achieved two wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows an even split, with both teams securing four wins each and two draws. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Salt Lake | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 35.8% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Real Salt Lake | 36.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Salt Lake win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake stats
San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake recent form
| San Jose Earthquakes |
LDDDWD |
| Real Salt Lake |
WWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake season so far
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2022-07-31 | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2022-06-19 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-30 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.