Austin
vs
Real Salt Lake
Garuda Lions Prediction: Austin
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austin vs Real Salt Lake
| Probability | Austin | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 26.9% | 32.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.9% | 26.9% | 32.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Austin vs Real Salt Lake match preview
Austin faces Real Salt Lake in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Austin has a 41% chance of winning, while Real Salt Lake has a 32% chance, and the draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Austin, with an expected goals tally of 1.55 for Austin and 1.36 for Real Salt Lake.
In terms of recent form, Austin has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, alongside two draws, while Real Salt Lake has a mixed record with two wins and three losses in their last five. Historically, Austin has not won against Real Salt Lake in their last three meetings, recording zero wins, one draw, and two losses. The model estimates a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Austin and Real Salt Lake expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Austin and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings
Austin
Real Salt Lake
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Austin vs Real Salt Lake markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 40.9% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Real Salt Lake | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Austin win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Austin vs Real Salt Lake stats
Austin and Real Salt Lake recent form
| Austin |
LLLDDW |
| Real Salt Lake |
WDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austin and Real Salt Lake season so far
Austin record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Austin vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Real Salt Lake | Austin | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Real Salt Lake | Austin | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-29 | Austin | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.