Sporting Kansas City
vs
Austin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Kansas City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sporting Kansas City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
| Probability | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Austin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 23.7% | 36.4% |
| Market | 43.1% | 24.3% | 32.7% |
| Final | 42.3% | 24.1% | 33.6% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.1% | +0.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.25 − 1).
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin match preview
Sporting Kansas City faces Austin in a match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Sporting Kansas City has a 40% chance of winning, while Austin stands at 36%, with a 24% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Sporting Kansas City, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% chance for each team contributing to a total exceeding 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Kansas City has recorded a sequence of L-L-D-L-W-L, while Austin's form shows L-L-L-D-D-W. The expected goals for this matchup are 1.84 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.75 for Austin. Historically, in their last three meetings, Sporting Kansas City has won once, while Austin has secured two victories. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Sporting Kansas City and Austin team news
Sporting Kansas City news
- Diego Borges — groin injury
- J. Reynolds — muscle injury
- L. Johnsen — hamstring injury
- M. Mosquera — hamstring injury
- O. Blorian — chest injury
- O. Wolff — muscle injury
Austin news
- Z. Kolmanic — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Kansas City and Austin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Sporting Kansas City and Austin attack and defence ratings
Sporting Kansas City
Austin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 42.3% | 2.37 | -0.8% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 42.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Austin | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% |
| No | 29.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Kansas City win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin stats
Sporting Kansas City and Austin recent form
| Sporting Kansas City |
LLDLWL |
| Austin |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Kansas City and Austin season so far
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
Austin record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Austin | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sporting Kansas City | Austin | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Sporting Kansas City | Austin | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-23 | Austin | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2024-06-30 | Sporting Kansas City | Austin | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Austin | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2023-07-16 | Austin | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-06-11 | Sporting Kansas City | Austin | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2022-08-14 | Austin | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Kansas City vs Austin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 24.3%, away 32.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.84 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 4.01 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.45 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .