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Major League Soccer · ·Matchday 30

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake

Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Salt Lake

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

Bet on Real Salt Lake

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas CityReferee: Alexis Da Silva

Sporting Kansas City 36%
Draw 24%
Real Salt Lake 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Real Salt Lake wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
67%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting Kansas CityDrawReal Salt Lake
Model42.1%24.5%33.4%
Market34.1%24.3%41.6%
Final36.1%24.3%39.6%
Edge+8.0%+0.2%-8.3%

Confidence: Low

Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake match preview

Sporting Kansas City faces Real Salt Lake in an upcoming MLS match, with both teams showing fluctuating recent form. Sporting Kansas City has recorded a draw, two wins, and three losses in their last six matches, while Real Salt Lake has struggled with five losses and just one win in the same period. According to our model, the probabilities for a win are evenly split at 38% for both teams, with a 24% chance of a draw.

The expected goals for this matchup suggest a competitive game, with Sporting Kansas City projected to score 2.04 goals and Real Salt Lake 1.49. Our model indicates a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and the same percentage for both teams to score. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Real Salt Lake, reflecting their recent head-to-head advantage with two wins and a draw in the last three encounters.

Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake team news

injuries & suspensions

Sporting Kansas City news

  • Diego Borges — groin injury
  • J. Reynolds — muscle injury
  • L. Johnsen — hamstring injury
  • M. Mosquera — hamstring injury
  • O. Blorian — chest injury
  • O. Wolff — muscle injury

Real Salt Lake news

  • D. Luna — knee injury
  • E. Eneli — knee injury
  • G. Dillon — foot injury
  • J. Glad — groin injury
  • J. J. Arias — hamstring injury
  • L. De Fougerolles — injury
  • L. Engel — hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting Kansa ↓ / Real Salt Lake → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 8% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake expected goals

Sporting Kansas City 1.80
Real Salt Lake 1.59

Total expected goals: 3.39

Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings

Sporting Kansas City

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Real Salt Lake

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Salt Lake 39.6% 2.53 -8.3% 2.30
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.4% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.6% 1.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting Kansas City36.1%
Draw24.3%
Real Salt Lake39.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%
Both teams to scoreYes67.4%
No32.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.4%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)63.9%
Handicap -1Real Salt Lake win16.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.7%
Loss66.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-18.7%
1-27.7%
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Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake stats

Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake recent form

newest first
Sporting Kansas City LDLWLW
Real Salt Lake DLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake season so far

league record

Sporting Kansas City record

  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.

Real Salt Lake record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Sporting Kansas City wins 3Draws 5Real Salt Lake wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-04Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer3-1
2025-09-14Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-06-29Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-1
2024-06-20Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer3-4
2024-05-05Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-10-08Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer2-3
2023-07-13Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-02-08Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs2-2
2022-07-18Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer3-0
2022-03-27Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 24.3%, away 41.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.88 3.80 2.25
BetVictor 2.75 3.90 2.25
Betano 2.90 3.70 2.30
Betfair 2.75 3.90 2.20
Dafabet 2.90 3.95 2.27
Marathonbet 2.69 3.86 2.25
Pinnacle 2.91 3.94 2.26
SBO 2.63 3.46 2.08
William Hill 2.70 3.60 2.20
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 —
X 3.86 ▲ +0.01
2 2.25 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Real Salt Lake Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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