Real Salt Lake
vs
St. Louis City
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.22.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City
| Probability | Real Salt Lake | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.7% | 24.0% | 53.3% |
| Market | 41.3% | 24.9% | 33.8% |
| Final | 36.7% | 24.7% | 38.7% |
| Edge | -4.7% | -0.2% | +4.9% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.4% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.88 − 1).
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City match preview
Real Salt Lake faces St. Louis City in an intriguing matchup, with the probabilities indicating a 35% chance of a Real Salt Lake victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 40% likelihood of a St. Louis City win. The expected goals suggest Real Salt Lake will score 1.22 while St. Louis City is projected to net 1.94. The most likely scoreline from the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In terms of recent form, Real Salt Lake has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while St. Louis City has managed two wins and four draws in the same timeframe. Both teams are expected to score, with a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals as well. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City team news
Real Salt Lake news
- D. Luna — knee injury
- E. Eneli — knee injury
- G. Dillon — foot injury
- J. Glad — groin injury
- J. J. Arias — hamstring injury
- L. Engel — hamstring injury
St. Louis City news
- A. Matan — injury
- Celio Pompeu — knee injury
- K. Hiebert — hip injury
- R. Burki — head injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Portland Timbers v Charlotte — match page
- San Diego vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 38.7% | 2.59 | +4.9% | 2.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Salt Lake | 36.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| St. Louis City | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City stats
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City recent form
| Real Salt Lake |
WDLWLL |
| St. Louis City |
DLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City season so far
Real Salt Lake record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
St. Louis City record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-06 | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-05 | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-25 | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-22 | St. Louis City | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2023-03-26 | Real Salt Lake | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 24.9%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.95 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.78 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 4.05 | 2.82 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.31 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .