New York Red Bulls
vs
Inter Miami
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter Miami
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Inter Miami is the favourite, not a value bet.
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.9% | 24.3% | 53.9% |
| Market | 27.5% | 21.9% | 50.7% |
| Final | 26.1% | 22.5% | 51.5% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +0.6% | +0.8% |
Why Inter Miami
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 51.5% × 1.90 − 1).
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami match preview
In the upcoming match between New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Inter Miami, with a 54% chance of winning compared to 22% for New York Red Bulls and a 24% probability of a draw. The expected goals for New York Red Bulls stand at 1.16, while Inter Miami is projected at 1.91, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring game, as the model estimates a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Recent form shows New York Red Bulls with mixed results, recording two wins and three losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Inter Miami has been more consistent, achieving three wins, one loss, and one draw in the same timeframe. Historically, Inter Miami has performed well against New York Red Bulls, winning two of their last three encounters, which could influence the match dynamics.
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami team news
New York Red Bulls news
- A. Marcucci — knee injury
Inter Miami news
- F. Caicedo — lower-body injury
- M. Falcon — yellow cards
- M. Silvetti — injury
- T. Allende — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 51.5% | 1.94 | +0.8% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 26.1% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Inter Miami | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% |
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami stats
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
LLWLWW |
| Inter Miami |
WWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami season so far
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Miami record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Inter Miami | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | New York Red Bulls | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 1-5 |
| 2025-05-03 | Inter Miami | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 22.0%, away 50.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 4.33 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 4.40 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 4.25 | 1.84 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 4.39 | 1.88 |
| SBO | 3.06 | 3.77 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .