Atlanta United FC
vs
Inter Miami
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter Miami
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
| Probability | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 24.0% | 40.7% |
| Market | 28.1% | 22.6% | 49.3% |
| Final | 29.9% | 23.0% | 47.2% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +1.5% | -8.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami match preview
Atlanta United FC faces Inter Miami in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive contest. Our model gives Atlanta a 30% chance of winning, while Inter Miami is favored at 47%, with a 23% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Inter Miami, reflecting expected goals of 1.61 for Atlanta and 2.03 for Inter Miami.
Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% probability that both teams will find the net. Atlanta's recent form shows mixed results with one win in their last six matches, while Inter Miami has managed one win in their last six as well, indicating a struggle for consistency. The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with both teams having four wins each in their last ten encounters.
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami team news
Atlanta United FC news
- D. Chica — knee injury
- W. Reilly — ankle injury
Inter Miami news
- M. Silvetti — injury
- T. Allende — knee injury
- Y. Bright — foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami attack and defence ratings
Atlanta United FC
Inter Miami
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
Before and after this match
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 47.2% | 2.12 | -8.7% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 29.9% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Inter Miami | 47.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami stats
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami recent form
| Atlanta United FC |
WLDWDL |
| Inter Miami |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami season so far
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Miami record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Atlanta United FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2024-11-02 | Atlanta United FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Atlanta United FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-29 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-16 | Atlanta United FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 5-2 |
| 2023-07-25 | Inter Miami | Atlanta United FC | Leagues Cup | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 22.6%, away 49.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 4.10 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 4.20 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 4.15 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 4.20 | 1.98 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 4.15 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 3.34 | 4.45 | 1.95 |
| SBO | 2.90 | 3.63 | 1.89 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .