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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 29

Inter Miami vs New York City FC

2 – 0 Full time

20′Germán Berterame
45′Rodrigo De Paul
52′Matías Galarza
58′Alonso MartinezHannes Wolf
58′Nico CavalloKevin O'Toole
65′Matías GalarzaTelasco Segovia
65′Bénie Adama TraoréLuighi Hanri Sousa Santos
74′Sergio ReguilónFricio Caicedo
75′Germán BerterameRiquelme Fillipi
85′Riquelme Fillipi
85′Agustin OjedaMalachi Jones
85′Aiden O'NeillTalles Magno
90′David AyalaIan Fray

Nu Stadium, MiamiReferee: Lorenzo Hernandez

Inter Miami 61%
Draw 20%
New York City FC 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 5
57 Possession % 43
3 Corners 4
14 Fouls 8
5 Saves 4
600 Accurate passes 436

Inter Miami vs New York City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Inter Miami vs New York City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInter MiamiDrawNew York City FC
Model57.8%22.5%19.8%
Market62.4%19.7%17.8%
Final61.3%20.4%18.3%
Edge-1.2%+0.7%+0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Inter Miami

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.19.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Inter Miami ↓ / New York City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 10% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Inter Miami and New York City FC expected goals

Inter Miami 2.12
New York City FC 1.19

Total expected goals: 3.30

Inter Miami and New York City FC attack and defence ratings

Inter Miami

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 1.06 +6%

New York City FC

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Inter Miami vs New York City FC: result vs prediction

Inter Miami 2 – 0 New York City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Inter Miami vs New York City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Inter Miami 61.3% 1.63 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.1% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.0% 1.61 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.7% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Inter Miami61.3%
Draw20.4%
New York City FC18.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Both teams to scoreYes62.0%
No38.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.7%
12 (either side)79.6%
X2 (draw or away)38.7%
Handicap -1Inter Miami win36.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss42.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%

Inter Miami vs New York City FC stats

Inter Miami and New York City FC recent form

newest first
Inter Miami WLDDDD
New York City FC LDLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Inter Miami and New York City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Inter Miami record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New York City FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inter Miami vs New York City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Inter Miami wins 4Draws 3New York City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22New York City FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer2-3
2025-11-29Inter MiamiNew York City FCMajor League Soccer5-1
2025-09-24New York City FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer0-4
2025-02-23Inter MiamiNew York City FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2024-09-21New York City FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer1-1
2024-03-30Inter MiamiNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-11-11Inter MiamiNew York City FCFriendlies Clubs1-2
2023-09-30Inter MiamiNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-03-12New York City FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer1-0
2022-10-17New York City FCInter MiamiMajor League Soccer3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Inter Miami vs New York City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.4%, draw 19.7%, away 17.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.53 5.00 5.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.75 5.25
Betano 1.57 4.90 5.40
Betfair 1.50 4.75 5.50
Dafabet 1.54 4.90 5.40
Marathonbet 1.50 4.70 5.10
Pinnacle 1.55 4.96 5.21
SBO 1.46 4.53 4.94
William Hill 1.50 4.40 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.05
X 4.75 ▼ -0.10
2 5.25 ▼ -0.35

20 snapshots recorded, from .