Inter Miami
vs
New York City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter Miami
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Inter Miami vs New York City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
| Probability | Inter Miami | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 24.7% | 27.2% |
| Market | 64.7% | 19.3% | 16.0% |
| Final | 60.5% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| Edge | -16.6% | +5.4% | +11.3% |
Why Inter Miami
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.36.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC match preview
Inter Miami is favored to win against New York City FC with a 61% probability, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 21% and New York City FC at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The model also indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.85 for Inter Miami and 1.36 for New York City FC.
In terms of recent form, Inter Miami has recorded one win, four draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while New York City FC has two draws, one win, and three losses in the same period. Historically, in their last four encounters, Inter Miami has won three times and drawn once, with New York City FC yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inter Miami and New York City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Inter Miami and New York City FC attack and defence ratings
Inter Miami
New York City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
Before and after this match
Inter Miami vs New York City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 60.5% | 1.65 | -16.6% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 60.5% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| New York City FC | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Inter Miami vs New York City FC stats
Inter Miami and New York City FC recent form
| Inter Miami |
LDDDDW |
| New York City FC |
DLWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inter Miami and New York City FC season so far
Inter Miami record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | New York City FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Inter Miami | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 5-1 |
| 2025-09-24 | New York City FC | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer | 0-4 |
| 2025-02-23 | Inter Miami | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.7%, draw 19.3%, away 16.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.85 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.85 | 5.60 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .