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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 29

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

2 – 3 Full time

4′Ilay Feingold
13′Tom Barlow
21′Dor Turgeman
31′Tyrell Malacia
43′Joshua Wynder
44′Tom Barlow
45′Obinna NwobodoPavel Bucha
45′Tom BarlowKenji Mboma Dem
45′Julian MalatiniSamuel Mawuena Gidi
51′Dor Turgeman
67′Kevin Denkey
68′Tyrell MalaciaEvander
69′Dániel GazdagLuca Daniel·Langoni
74′Ilay FeingoldJackson Yueill
81′Kyle SmithAyoub Jabbari
83′M. Mitrovic
84′Evander
89′Peyton MillerTanner·Beason
89′Dor TurgemanCody Baker

TQL Stadium, CincinnatiReferee: Rubiel Vazquez

FC Cincinnati 53%
Draw 22%
New England Revolution 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 5
58 Possession % 42
12 Corners 5
8 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 4
2 Saves 7
479 Accurate passes 325

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC CincinnatiDrawNew England Revolution
Model43.9%22.7%33.4%
Market55.9%21.4%22.8%
Final52.9%21.7%25.4%
Edge-3.0%+0.3%+2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Cincinnati ↓ / New England Re → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution expected goals

FC Cincinnati 2.03
New England Revolution 1.77

Total expected goals: 3.80

FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution attack and defence ratings

FC Cincinnati

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.31 +31%

New England Revolution

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution: result vs prediction

FC Cincinnati 2 – 3 New England Revolution

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Cincinnati 52.9% 1.89 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.2% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.9% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.3% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.1% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Cincinnati52.9%
Draw21.7%
New England Revolution25.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%
Both teams to scoreYes72.9%
No27.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.6%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)47.1%
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss56.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.8%
2-18.2%
2-27.2%

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution stats

FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution recent form

newest first
FC Cincinnati WLDDLL
New England Revolution LLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New England Revolution record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4FC Cincinnati wins 3Draws 2New England Revolution wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15New England RevolutionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer6-1
2026-01-23New England RevolutionFC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs1-1
2025-06-14New England RevolutionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer0-1
2025-04-05FC CincinnatiNew England RevolutionMajor League Soccer1-0
2024-06-22FC CincinnatiNew England RevolutionMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-03-17New England RevolutionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-02-15FC CincinnatiNew England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs5-2
2023-07-01FC CincinnatiNew England RevolutionMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-04-29New England RevolutionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 21.4%, away 22.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.70 4.50 4.10
BetVictor 1.65 4.40 4.20
Betano 1.70 4.50 4.15
Betfair 1.70 4.40 4.20
Dafabet 1.73 4.50 4.20
Marathonbet 1.70 4.25 3.98
Pinnacle 1.69 4.64 4.36
William Hill 1.70 4.00 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.70 ▼ -0.30
X 4.45 ▲ +0.50
2 4.18 ▲ +1.10

20 snapshots recorded, from .