FC Cincinnati
vs
Columbus Crew
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cincinnati
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
| Probability | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 22.8% | 41.9% |
| Market | 40.9% | 23.6% | 35.6% |
| Final | 39.5% | 23.4% | 37.2% |
| Edge | -5.5% | -0.8% | +6.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew match preview
FC Cincinnati faces Columbus Crew in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a closely contested game, with FC Cincinnati at 39% to win, Columbus Crew at 37%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of FC Cincinnati, occurring with a 7% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 73% likelihood for each team contributing to a high-scoring affair, as indicated by the expected goals of 1.82 for FC Cincinnati and 1.99 for Columbus Crew.
Recent form shows FC Cincinnati struggling with a record of L-W-L-D-D-L, while Columbus Crew has been more successful, winning four of their last six matches, including a recent victory. In their last ten encounters, FC Cincinnati has recorded three wins, while Columbus Crew leads with five wins, indicating a competitive rivalry. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew team news
FC Cincinnati news
- J. Martinez — knee injury
- M. Robinson — injury
Columbus Crew news
- R. Camacho — chest injury
- W. Abou Ali — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.81
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew attack and defence ratings
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
- Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego — match page
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 39.5% | 2.53 | -5.5% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 39.5% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Columbus Crew | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cincinnati win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew stats
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew recent form
| FC Cincinnati |
LWLDDL |
| Columbus Crew |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew season so far
FC Cincinnati record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-27 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
| 2025-05-17 | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-02 | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-20 | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 23.6%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.88 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.99 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.62 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .