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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

FC Cincinnati vs DC United

2 – 1 Full time

14′David Douděra
38′Kimito Nono
45′Tyrell MalaciaBryan Ramirez
54′Kimito Nono
55′Teenage Hadebe
67′Jackson HopkinsNathan Ordaz
69′David DouděraAlvas Powell
79′Brandon ServaniaMatti Peltola
79′Silvan HeftiOscar Avilez
80′Tom BarlowAyoub Jabbari
80′Kevin DenkeySamuel Mawuena Gidi
87′Nick Hagglund
88′Tai Baribo
90′EvanderKenji Mboma Dem
90′Kye RowlesSean Nealis
90′Ayoub Jabbari

TQL Stadium, CincinnatiReferee: Tim Ford

FC Cincinnati 55%
Draw 21%
DC United 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
6 Corners 9
8 Fouls 13
2 Saves 4
320 Accurate passes 357

FC Cincinnati vs DC United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs DC United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC CincinnatiDrawDC United
Model51.5%22.1%26.4%
Market56.8%20.6%22.6%
Final55.5%21.0%23.5%
Edge-1.3%+0.4%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Cincinnati

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.56.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Cincinnati ↓ / DC United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

FC Cincinnati and DC United expected goals

FC Cincinnati 2.20
DC United 1.56

Total expected goals: 3.75

FC Cincinnati and DC United attack and defence ratings

FC Cincinnati

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.33 +33%

DC United

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cincinnati vs DC United: result vs prediction

FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 DC United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

FC Cincinnati vs DC United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Cincinnati 55.5% 1.80 -1.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.9% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 79.0% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.5% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Cincinnati55.5%
Draw21.0%
DC United23.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
Both teams to scoreYes70.9%
No29.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.5%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)44.5%
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win31.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss48.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.8%
2-18.8%
2-26.9%

FC Cincinnati vs DC United stats

FC Cincinnati and DC United recent form

newest first
FC Cincinnati LLWLDD
DC United LWLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cincinnati and DC United going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

DC United record

  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati vs DC United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Cincinnati wins 2Draws 4DC United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-05-31FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-04-12DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer0-1
2024-07-03DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-3
2024-03-10FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer0-0
2023-06-24DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer3-0
2023-05-06FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer2-1
2022-10-09DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-5
2022-03-05FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer0-1
2021-09-25DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer4-2
2021-07-31FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cincinnati vs DC United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 20.6%, away 22.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.56 4.60 4.70
Bet365 1.67 4.75 4.20
BetVictor 1.62 4.60 4.33
Betano 1.70 4.85 4.35
Betfair 1.75 4.50 3.80
Dafabet 1.71 4.70 4.20
Marathonbet 1.64 4.45 4.15
Pinnacle 1.67 4.84 4.34
SBO 1.62 4.26 3.92
Unibet 1.52 4.60 5.10
William Hill 1.67 4.20 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▲ +0.17
X 4.60 ▼ -0.05
2 4.20 ▼ -1.30

29 snapshots recorded, from .