Garuda Lions
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Major League Soccer · ·Matchday 31

DC United vs FC Cincinnati

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cincinnati

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Cincinnati is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on FC Cincinnati

Audi Field, WashingtonReferee: Jon Freemon

DC United 35%
Draw 24%
FC Cincinnati 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Cincinnati wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
68%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

DC United vs FC Cincinnati overview

Garuda Lions analysis: DC United vs FC Cincinnati

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDC UnitedDrawFC Cincinnati
Model38.8%24.4%36.9%
Market33.8%23.7%42.5%
Final35.1%23.9%41.1%
Edge+1.2%+0.2%-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Cincinnati

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 41.1% × 2.27 − 1).

DC United vs FC Cincinnati match preview

DC United hosts FC Cincinnati in what promises to be a competitive matchup. According to our model, DC United has a 35% probability of winning, while FC Cincinnati stands at 41%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of FC Cincinnati, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 68% likelihood, and there is a 67% chance that the total goals will exceed 2.5.

In terms of recent form, DC United has struggled, recording two losses, one win, one draw, and two more losses in their last six matches. Conversely, FC Cincinnati has shown some resilience, with three wins, two losses, and one draw in their recent outings. The expected goals for DC United is 1.74, while FC Cincinnati is slightly behind at 1.70, indicating a closely contested match.

DC United and FC Cincinnati team news

injuries & suspensions

DC United news

  • G. Segal — leg injury
  • H. Kijima — leg injury
  • L. Munteanu — leg injury
  • S. Johnson — leg injury

FC Cincinnati news

  • E. Echenique — leg injury
  • J. Malatini — thigh injury
  • J. Martinez — knee injury
  • M. Robinson — injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

DC United ↓ / FC Cincinnati → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

DC United and FC Cincinnati expected goals

DC United 1.74
FC Cincinnati 1.70

Total expected goals: 3.44

DC United and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings

DC United

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.25 +25%

FC Cincinnati

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

DC United vs FC Cincinnati markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Cincinnati 41.1% 2.44 -1.4% 2.27
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.4% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.1% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2DC United35.1%
Draw23.9%
FC Cincinnati41.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%
Both teams to scoreYes68.4%
No31.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.9%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)64.9%
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win19.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss63.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
2-18.3%
1-28.0%
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DC United vs FC Cincinnati stats

DC United and FC Cincinnati recent form

newest first
DC United LLWLDL
FC Cincinnati WLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

DC United and FC Cincinnati season so far

league record

DC United record

  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

DC United vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4DC United wins 1Draws 5FC Cincinnati wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-21FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-05-31FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-04-12DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer0-1
2024-07-03DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-3
2024-03-10FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer0-0
2023-06-24DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer3-0
2023-05-06FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer2-1
2022-10-09DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-5
2022-03-05FC CincinnatiDC UnitedMajor League Soccer0-1
2021-09-25DC UnitedFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

DC United vs FC Cincinnati odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 23.7%, away 42.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.80 4.00 2.25
BetVictor 2.75 4.00 2.20
Betano 2.85 3.95 2.25
Betfair 2.70 4.00 2.20
Dafabet 2.85 4.00 2.27
Marathonbet 2.77 3.85 2.20
Pinnacle 2.85 3.94 2.24
SBO 2.66 3.52 2.04
William Hill 2.75 3.60 2.20
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.79 ▲ +0.02
X 3.98 ▲ +0.08
2 2.22 ▲ +0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 FC Cincinnati Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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