Toronto FC
vs
DC United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toronto FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Toronto FC vs DC United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs DC United
| Probability | Toronto FC | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.9% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Toronto FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Toronto FC vs DC United match preview
Toronto FC enters the match against DC United with a 61% probability of winning, reflecting their stronger recent form, which includes two wins in their last three matches. The expected goals for Toronto FC stand at 2.30, while DC United is projected to score 1.22 goals. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Toronto FC, with a 10% likelihood.
DC United, on the other hand, has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last six games. They have a lower 18% probability of winning this fixture. The model suggests a high chance of goals, with 68% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score. The recent head-to-head record shows an even split, with each team winning once and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toronto FC and DC United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Toronto FC and DC United attack and defence ratings
Toronto FC
DC United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati — match page
- Charlotte vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
Before and after this match
Toronto FC vs DC United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 60.9% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| DC United | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win | 39.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Toronto FC vs DC United stats
Toronto FC and DC United recent form
| Toronto FC |
WDWLLL |
| DC United |
LLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toronto FC and DC United season so far
Toronto FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC vs DC United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | DC United | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Toronto FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | DC United | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.