Minnesota United FC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Minnesota United FC
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.81.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
| Probability | Minnesota United FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.0% | 15.7% | 18.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.0% | 15.7% | 18.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Minnesota United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.81.
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City match preview
Minnesota United FC enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Sporting Kansas City has an 18% chance. The expected goals for Minnesota United FC are notably higher at 3.28 compared to Sporting Kansas City’s 1.81, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring game. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1, with an 88% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 81% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Minnesota United FC with mixed results, including one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Sporting Kansas City has struggled, recording one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six games. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters is evenly matched, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.09
Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City attack and defence ratings
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 66.0% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.9% |
| No | 19.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win | 48.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.6% |
| 2-1 | 6.0% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% |
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City stats
Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City recent form
| Minnesota United FC |
WDDLLL |
| Sporting Kansas City |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City season so far
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sporting Kansas City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Minnesota United FC | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Sporting Kansas City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.