Los Angeles FC
vs
Minnesota United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Los Angeles FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.37.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC
| Probability | Los Angeles FC | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 24.2% | 26.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.2% | 24.2% | 26.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Los Angeles FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.37.
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC match preview
Los Angeles FC faces Minnesota United FC in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home team, with a 49% chance of victory compared to 27% for Minnesota. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for goals, as over 2.5 goals is projected at 64%, and both teams scoring at 65%.
In terms of recent form, Los Angeles FC has recorded two draws followed by a win, while Minnesota United FC has seen a mix of draws and a win, but also two consecutive losses. The expected goals for Los Angeles FC stand at 1.91, while Minnesota United FC is at 1.37. Historically, Los Angeles FC has dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning all three of the last matches against Minnesota United FC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings
Los Angeles FC
Minnesota United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
- Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC — match page
- Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
- New England Revolution v Inter Miami — match page
- Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 49.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Minnesota United FC | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles FC win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC stats
Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC recent form
| Los Angeles FC |
DDWDLD |
| Minnesota United FC |
DWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC season so far
Los Angeles FC record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Minnesota United FC | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Los Angeles FC | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.