Minnesota United FC
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Minnesota United FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.44.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Minnesota United FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Probability | Minnesota United FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 21.8% | 23.6% |
| Market | 55.0% | 22.2% | 22.8% |
| Final | 54.9% | 22.1% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.2% |
Why Minnesota United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 54.9% × 1.80 − 1).
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes match preview
Minnesota United FC holds a 52% probability of winning against San Jose Earthquakes, with a projected scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 9%. The expected goals for Minnesota United FC stand at 2.16, while San Jose Earthquakes are at 1.51. Both teams are showing a tendency to score, with our model indicating a 70% chance for both teams to find the net and a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Minnesota United FC has recorded a mixed bag of results with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, San Jose Earthquakes have struggled, managing only one win and five draws in their last six outings. Historically, Minnesota United FC has an advantage in their last four encounters, winning three times compared to San Jose's single victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings
Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Before and after this match
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 54.9% | 1.82 | -0.1% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 54.9% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% |
| No | 31.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes stats
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
| Minnesota United FC |
WWDWDD |
| San Jose Earthquakes |
WDLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes season so far
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-5 |
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup | 4-2 |
| 2025-07-13 | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-21 | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-01 | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-15 | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs | 1-4 |
| 2022-10-02 | San Jose Earthquakes | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 22.2%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.35 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 4.39 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.66 | 3.63 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .