Houston Dynamo
vs
St. Louis City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Houston Dynamo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Houston Dynamo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
| Probability | Houston Dynamo | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.3% | 27.8% | 36.9% |
| Market | 37.6% | 26.6% | 35.9% |
| Final | 37.0% | 26.9% | 36.1% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
Why Houston Dynamo
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 37.0% × 2.62 − 1).
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City match preview
Houston Dynamo faces St. Louis City in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a close contest, with Houston Dynamo at 36% to win, St. Louis City at 37%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals are closely matched, with Houston Dynamo at 1.37 and St. Louis City at 1.40.
In terms of recent form, Houston Dynamo has struggled, recording one win and four draws in their last six matches, while St. Louis City has lost four of their last six, managing just two draws. The model suggests a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score, indicating potential for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Before and after this match
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 37.0% | 2.70 | -0.6% | 2.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 37.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| St. Louis City | 36.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City stats
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City recent form
| Houston Dynamo |
LWDDDD |
| St. Louis City |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City season so far
Houston Dynamo record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
St. Louis City record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-20 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | US Open Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2025-06-29 | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-28 | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City | CONCACAF Champions League | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-21 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | CONCACAF Champions League | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-04 | St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 26.6%, away 35.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.46 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.57 | 2.63 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 3.19 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .