San Diego
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Diego
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.68.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — San Diego is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
| Probability | San Diego | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.4% | 20.0% | 24.6% |
| Market | 63.0% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| Final | 61.1% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +0.3% | +1.6% |
Why San Diego
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.68.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (our 61.1% × 1.53 − 1).
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City match preview
San Diego enters the match against Sporting Kansas City with a 55% probability of winning, supported by an expected goals tally of 2.51 compared to Sporting Kansas City's 1.68. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at an 8% probability. Furthermore, there is a strong indication of a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals expected at 79% and both teams to score at 75%.
In terms of recent form, San Diego has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Sporting Kansas City has struggled, with five losses and one draw in their recent outings. Historically, San Diego has performed well against Sporting Kansas City, winning two of their last three encounters and drawing the other.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.19
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City attack and defence ratings
San Diego
Sporting Kansas City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 61.1% | 1.64 | -1.9% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 61.1% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% |
| No | 24.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win | 36.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City stats
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City recent form
| San Diego |
WLDDDL |
| Sporting Kansas City |
DLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City season so far
San Diego record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 12 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Sporting Kansas City | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Sporting Kansas City | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | San Diego | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.0%, draw 18.9%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 5.30 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 5.24 | 5.26 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.49 | 4.67 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .