St. Louis City
vs
San Diego
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.45.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
St. Louis City vs San Diego overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs San Diego
| Probability | St. Louis City | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.9% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
St. Louis City vs San Diego match preview
St. Louis City is set to host San Diego in a Major League Soccer clash, with the model predicting a strong likelihood of a home victory at 68%. St. Louis City has shown mixed recent form, recording two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, San Diego has struggled, managing only three draws and two losses in their recent outings.
The expected goals for St. Louis City stand at 2.97, while San Diego is projected at 1.45, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match. The model suggests an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% likelihood that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline is a 2-1 victory for St. Louis City, occurring with an 8% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Louis City and San Diego expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.42
St. Louis City and San Diego attack and defence ratings
St. Louis City
San Diego
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
St. Louis City vs San Diego markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 49.1% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 67.9% |
| Draw | 16.5% | |
| San Diego | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 49.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 5.7% |
St. Louis City vs San Diego stats
St. Louis City and San Diego recent form
| St. Louis City |
LDLDWW |
| San Diego |
DDDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Louis City and San Diego season so far
St. Louis City record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | San Diego | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | St. Louis City | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | San Diego | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.