St. Louis City
vs
Portland Timbers
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.05.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
| Probability | St. Louis City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.1% | 16.6% | 11.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.1% | 16.6% | 11.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers match preview
St. Louis City enters the match against Portland Timbers with a strong probability of winning at 72%, while the Timbers have an 11% chance. The expected goals indicate a significant advantage for St. Louis City at 2.74 compared to Portland's 1.05. Recent form shows St. Louis City with two wins in their last three matches, while Portland Timbers have struggled, recording six consecutive games without a win.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a probability of 9%. Additionally, there is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a 62% likelihood. In their last eight encounters, St. Louis City has secured three wins, while Portland Timbers have two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Louis City and Portland Timbers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
St. Louis City and Portland Timbers attack and defence ratings
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page
Before and after this match
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 72.1% |
| Draw | 16.6% | |
| Portland Timbers | 11.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 52.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 27.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | |
| 3-1 | 8.1% |
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers stats
St. Louis City and Portland Timbers recent form
| St. Louis City |
DLDWWW |
| Portland Timbers |
DLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Louis City and Portland Timbers season so far
St. Louis City record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Portland Timbers | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-13 | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Portland Timbers | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Portland Timbers | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 4-4 |
| 2024-08-10 | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers | Leagues Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-06-09 | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-30 | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-12 | Portland Timbers | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.