Portland Timbers
vs
Charlotte
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portland Timbers
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Portland Timbers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
| Probability | Portland Timbers | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 24.3% | 41.9% |
| Market | 47.0% | 23.2% | 29.8% |
| Final | 43.7% | 23.5% | 32.8% |
| Edge | -3.3% | +0.3% | +3.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.08 − 1).
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte match preview
In the upcoming match between Portland Timbers and Charlotte, the probabilities indicate a 44% chance of a Portland victory, while Charlotte holds a 32% chance, and a draw is at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Portland, with an 8% likelihood. The model also suggests a high probability for over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%.
Examining the expected goals, Portland Timbers are projected to score 1.62, while Charlotte is slightly favored with an expectation of 1.82 goals. Recent form shows Portland Timbers struggling with a sequence of draws and losses, while Charlotte has had a mixed bag of results, including two wins in their last five matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty.
Portland Timbers and Charlotte team news
Portland Timbers news
- A. Bonetig — shoulder injury
- Antony — knee injury
- B. Bye — leg injury
- H. Sulte — lower-body injury
- J. Mosquera — foot injury
- Z. McGraw — back injury
Charlotte news
- A. Doucoure — inactive
- A. Goodwin — foot injury
- A. John — shoulder injury
- B. Bronico — groin injury
- N. Berchimas — foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portland Timbers and Charlotte expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Portland Timbers and Charlotte attack and defence ratings
Portland Timbers
Charlotte
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- San Diego vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portland Timbers | 43.7% | 2.29 | -3.3% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portland Timbers | 43.7% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Charlotte | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% |
| No | 31.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portland Timbers win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 66.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte stats
Portland Timbers and Charlotte recent form
| Portland Timbers |
DLDLLL |
| Charlotte |
DLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portland Timbers and Charlotte season so far
Portland Timbers record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Charlotte | Portland Timbers | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-04 | Charlotte | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portland Timbers vs Charlotte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.8%, draw 23.1%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 4.05 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 4.05 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 4.16 | 3.26 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.41 | 2.73 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .