Atlanta United FC
vs
Chicago Fire
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlanta United FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.37.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
| Probability | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 25.5% | 29.2% |
| Market | 36.1% | 24.5% | 39.3% |
| Final | 38.4% | 24.8% | 36.8% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.2% | -2.5% |
Why Atlanta United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.37.
- The market prices Atlanta United FC below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.68 − 1).
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire match preview
Atlanta United FC faces Chicago Fire in an intriguing matchup, with our model assigning a 45% probability of a home victory for Atlanta, while Chicago has a 29% chance of winning and a 25% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Atlanta, with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Atlanta are 1.74, compared to Chicago's 1.37, indicating a slight edge for the home team.
In terms of recent form, Atlanta United FC has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last five matches, while Chicago Fire has shown more consistency, winning three of their last five encounters. Historical head-to-head results favor Chicago, who has two wins and one draw in their last three meetings with Atlanta. The model suggests a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire team news
Atlanta United FC news
- D. Chica — knee injury
- W. Reilly — ankle injury
Chicago Fire news
- A. Franco — knee injury
- J. Elliott — yellow cards
- R. Lod — lower-body injury
- S. Rogers — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
Before and after this match
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 38.4% | 2.60 | +2.3% | 2.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 38.4% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Chicago Fire | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta United FC win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire stats
Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire recent form
| Atlanta United FC |
LWLDWD |
| Chicago Fire |
LLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire season so far
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Chicago Fire | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Atlanta United FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Chicago Fire | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 24.6%, away 39.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.85 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.74 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.81 | 2.41 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 3.42 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .