Chicago Fire
vs
Orlando City SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando City SC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
| Probability | Chicago Fire | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 22.2% | 39.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.7% | 22.2% | 39.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC match preview
The upcoming match between Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC presents an intriguing matchup, with both teams having similar probabilities of winning at 39%. The model forecasts a close contest, suggesting a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Orlando City SC, which has a 7% likelihood. With expected goals at 1.99 for Chicago Fire and 2.00 for Orlando City SC, the offensive capabilities of both teams appear evenly matched.
Recent form indicates Chicago Fire is coming off a mixed streak of results, with two losses followed by two wins, while Orlando City SC has struggled, recording one win and three losses in their last six matches. Historically, Chicago Fire has dominated their recent encounters, winning three out of the last four meetings, with one draw. Both teams are projected to score, with a 75% chance of both finding the net and a 76% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.98
Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC attack and defence ratings
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 38.7% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Orlando City SC | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.3% |
| No | 24.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.1% |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC stats
Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC recent form
| Chicago Fire |
LLWWWL |
| Orlando City SC |
WDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC season so far
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Orlando City SC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-23 | Chicago Fire | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Orlando City SC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-04 | Chicago Fire | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.