Charlotte
vs
Orlando City SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charlotte
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 2.11.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
| Probability | Charlotte | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.0% | 20.2% | 33.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.0% | 20.2% | 33.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Charlotte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 2.11.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC match preview
In the upcoming match between Charlotte and Orlando City SC, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Charlotte holding a 46% chance of winning, while Orlando City SC has a 34% probability. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Charlotte, with an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 81% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Charlotte with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Orlando City SC has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. In their last three head-to-head meetings, Charlotte has not secured a win, recording one draw and two losses against Orlando City SC. The expected goals are 2.44 for Charlotte and 2.11 for Orlando City SC, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charlotte and Orlando City SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.55
Charlotte and Orlando City SC attack and defence ratings
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 46.0% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Orlando City SC | 33.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% |
| No | 19.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.0% |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | |
| 1-1 | 6.0% |
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC stats
Charlotte and Orlando City SC recent form
| Charlotte |
LDLWLW |
| Orlando City SC |
DWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlotte and Orlando City SC season so far
Charlotte record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Orlando City SC | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Charlotte | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-14 | Orlando City SC | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.