New York City FC
vs
CF Montreal
Garuda Lions Prediction: New York City FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.88.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York City FC vs CF Montreal
| Probability | New York City FC | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 27.3% | 19.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.4% | 27.3% | 19.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why New York City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.88.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal match preview
New York City FC faces CF Montreal in an upcoming Major League Soccer match, with New York City FC holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for New York City FC and 0.88 for CF Montreal. Recent form shows New York City FC struggling with three draws and three losses in their last six matches, while CF Montreal has one win in their last six.
Historically, CF Montreal has dominated this matchup, winning all three of their last encounters against New York City FC. The probability of a draw stands at 27%, while CF Montreal has a 19% chance of winning. Additionally, there is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 48% probability of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York City FC and CF Montreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
New York City FC and CF Montreal attack and defence ratings
New York City FC
CF Montreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
New York City FC vs CF Montreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 53.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| CF Montreal | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | New York City FC win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.8% |
New York City FC vs CF Montreal stats
New York City FC and CF Montreal recent form
| New York City FC |
DDLLDL |
| CF Montreal |
LDLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York City FC and CF Montreal season so far
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | CF Montreal | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-28 | CF Montreal | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | New York City FC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.