DC United
vs
New York City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: New York City FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — New York City FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
DC United vs New York City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: DC United vs New York City FC
| Probability | DC United | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 28.6% | 46.6% |
| Market | 31.3% | 26.9% | 41.8% |
| Final | 29.7% | 27.3% | 43.0% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.4% | +1.2% |
Why New York City FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.02.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.30 − 1).
DC United vs New York City FC match preview
DC United faces New York City FC in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a 30% chance for a DC United win, 27% for a draw, and 43% for a New York City FC victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest DC United will score 1.02 while New York City FC is projected to net 1.48.
Recent form shows DC United struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a single win, while New York City FC has recorded three draws and two losses in their last six matches. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, both teams have won four times, with two matches ending in draws. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
DC United and New York City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
DC United and New York City FC attack and defence ratings
DC United
New York City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
DC United vs New York City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 43.0% | 2.33 | +1.2% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | DC United | 29.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| New York City FC | 43.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | New York City FC win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
DC United vs New York City FC stats
DC United and New York City FC recent form
| DC United |
LLLLLW |
| New York City FC |
DWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
DC United and New York City FC season so far
DC United record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
New York City FC record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-14 | DC United | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | DC United | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | DC United | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-18 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2022-09-01 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-05-18 | DC United | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-23 | New York City FC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
DC United vs New York City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 26.9%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.44 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.11 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.29 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .