New York Red Bulls
vs
Atlanta United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: New York Red Bulls
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — New York Red Bulls is the favourite, not a value bet.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 25.8% | 35.7% |
| Market | 50.8% | 22.4% | 26.8% |
| Final | 47.7% | 23.2% | 29.0% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.8% | +2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 47.7% × 1.91 − 1).
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC match preview
In the upcoming match between New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with New York Red Bulls having a 48% chance of winning, while Atlanta United FC stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of New York, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for the Red Bulls compared to 1.54 for Atlanta.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with New York Red Bulls recording two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Atlanta United FC has two wins and four losses in the same span. The model suggests a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score, indicating an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- DC United vs New York City FC
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 47.7% | 2.09 | -3.0% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 47.7% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Atlanta United FC | 29.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | New York Red Bulls win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC stats
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
LLWLLW |
| Atlanta United FC |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC season so far
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-31 | New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-21 | New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2023-06-24 | New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-17 | Atlanta United FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-01 | New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.8%, draw 22.4%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 4.33 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 4.20 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 4.15 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.34 | 3.63 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.86 | 3.24 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .