Nashville SC
vs
New York Red Bulls
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
| Probability | Nashville SC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.8% | 19.7% | 8.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 71.8% | 19.7% | 8.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls match preview
Nashville SC is positioned strongly ahead of their match against New York Red Bulls, with a 72% probability of winning according to our model. Recent form shows Nashville SC on a winning streak, having secured five victories in their last six matches, while New York Red Bulls have been inconsistent, with three wins and three losses in their last six games. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Nashville SC, projected at 2.13 compared to New York Red Bulls' 0.61.
In their last three encounters, Nashville SC has won twice, while New York Red Bulls managed one victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Nashville SC, occurring at a rate of 15%. Additionally, there is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams to score is estimated at 41%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls attack and defence ratings
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
- Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC — match page
- New England Revolution v Inter Miami — match page
- Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats
- Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 71.8% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| New York Red Bulls | 8.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.3% |
| No | 58.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 47.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 28.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | |
| 3-0 | 10.4% |
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls stats
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls recent form
| Nashville SC |
WDWWWW |
| New York Red Bulls |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls season so far
Nashville SC record
- They have won 21 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | New York Red Bulls | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Nashville SC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | New York Red Bulls | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.