Sporting Kansas City
vs
FC Dallas
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Dallas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.47.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
| Probability | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.9% | 21.2% | 55.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.9% | 21.2% | 55.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Dallas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas match preview
Sporting Kansas City faces FC Dallas in an upcoming Major League Soccer match, with the model indicating a 23% chance for Sporting Kansas City to win, a 21% chance for a draw, and a 56% probability for FC Dallas to secure the victory. The expected goals for Sporting Kansas City stand at 1.47, while FC Dallas is projected at 2.32. The most likely scoreline from the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Kansas City has struggled with three consecutive losses followed by a draw and a win, while FC Dallas has shown more resilience with two wins, a draw, a loss, and another win in their last six matches. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 73% and a 70% chance that both teams will score. In their last 10 encounters, Sporting Kansas City has won 4 times, while FC Dallas has emerged victorious on 6 occasions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas attack and defence ratings
Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Dallas | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 22.9% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| FC Dallas | 55.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Dallas win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 44.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-3 | 6.9% |
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas stats
Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas recent form
| Sporting Kansas City |
LLLDLW |
| FC Dallas |
WDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas season so far
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
FC Dallas record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | FC Dallas | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2025-06-15 | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
| 2025-03-30 | FC Dallas | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | FC Dallas | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-11 | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | US Open Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-08 | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2023-06-01 | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-19 | FC Dallas | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-09 | FC Dallas | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-05-11 | Sporting Kansas City | FC Dallas | US Open Cup | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.