Nashville SC
vs
Philadelphia Union
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.39.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
| Probability | Nashville SC | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 22.7% | 24.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.1% | 22.7% | 24.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.39.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union match preview
Nashville SC hosts Philadelphia Union in a matchup where Nashville holds a 53% probability of winning, compared to Philadelphia's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Nashville, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score. Expected goals stand at 2.11 for Nashville and 1.39 for Philadelphia.
In terms of recent form, Nashville SC has recorded a sequence of results with two draws and four wins, while Philadelphia Union remains strong with six consecutive wins and one draw. The head-to-head record favors Nashville, who has won three of their last four encounters against Philadelphia, with one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — team news & stats
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 53.1% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Philadelphia Union | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union stats
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union recent form
| Nashville SC |
DWWWWD |
| Philadelphia Union |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union season so far
Nashville SC record
- They have won 20 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Philadelphia Union | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union | US Open Cup | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Philadelphia Union | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.