Orlando City SC
vs
New England Revolution
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando City SC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Orlando City SC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution
| Probability | Orlando City SC | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 21.0% | 36.4% |
| Market | 47.3% | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| Final | 46.1% | 22.6% | 31.3% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -0.5% | +1.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 46.1% × 2.07 − 1).
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution match preview
Orlando City SC faces New England Revolution in an intriguing matchup, with Orlando holding a 46% probability of winning, compared to New England's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% likelihood that both teams will score. Expected goals for Orlando stand at 2.24, while New England is projected at 2.08.
In terms of recent form, Orlando City SC has recorded a mixed set of results with two draws and a win in their last five matches, while New England Revolution has been more consistent, winning four of their last five. Historically, Orlando has had the upper hand in their last ten encounters, winning six times, while New England has secured three victories. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.32
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution attack and defence ratings
Orlando City SC
New England Revolution
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
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- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- DC United vs New York City FC
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.1% | 2.17 | -1.2% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.1% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| New England Revolution | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% |
| No | 21.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution stats
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution recent form
| Orlando City SC |
LDDWDW |
| New England Revolution |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution season so far
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | New England Revolution | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2026-04-29 | New England Revolution | Orlando City SC | US Open Cup | 3-4 |
| 2025-07-19 | New England Revolution | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Orlando City SC | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2024-09-14 | Orlando City SC | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2024-07-13 | New England Revolution | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-11 | Orlando City SC | New England Revolution | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Orlando City SC | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2023-06-17 | New England Revolution | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-19 | Orlando City SC | New England Revolution | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 23.1%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 4.10 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 4.10 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 4.12 | 3.31 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .