Houston Dynamo
vs
Minnesota United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Houston Dynamo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Houston Dynamo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
| Probability | Houston Dynamo | Draw | Minnesota United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.0% | 21.5% | 26.5% |
| Market | 44.5% | 25.9% | 29.6% |
| Final | 46.4% | 24.8% | 28.8% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -1.1% | -0.8% |
Why Houston Dynamo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.62.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.5% per unit staked (our 46.4% × 2.21 − 1).
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC match preview
Houston Dynamo will host Minnesota United FC in a matchup where the home side has a 52% probability of winning, compared to 26% for the visitors. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Houston, with a 9% chance of this outcome occurring. Expectations for goals are high, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 75% and both teams to score at 73%.
In terms of recent form, Houston Dynamo has struggled with three draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Minnesota United FC has secured one win, alongside two draws and three losses. Historically, the last ten encounters show Houston Dynamo with three wins, two draws, and Minnesota United FC leading with five wins. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC team news
Houston Dynamo news
- A. Resch — yellow cards
- Felipe Andrade — injury
- J. Maurer — concussion
Minnesota United FC news
- A. Smir — knee injury
- P. Stroud — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 46.4% | 2.16 | +1.9% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 46.4% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Minnesota United FC | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC stats
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC recent form
| Houston Dynamo |
DDDLDL |
| Minnesota United FC |
WDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC season so far
Houston Dynamo record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-26 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-14 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-13 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-24 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup | 4-0 |
| 2023-05-18 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-27 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-24 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 25.8%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.65 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.69 | 3.27 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.07 | 2.84 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .