Minnesota United FC
vs
St. Louis City
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
| Probability | Minnesota United FC | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.3% | 16.9% | 65.8% |
| Market | 37.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Final | 32.5% | 23.0% | 44.6% |
| Edge | -20.2% | -8.1% | +28.3% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +28.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City match preview
Minnesota United FC faces St. Louis City in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Minnesota United FC has a 35% chance of winning, while St. Louis City holds a 41% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.81 for Minnesota and 2.74 for St. Louis.
Recent form indicates struggles for Minnesota United FC, who have drawn twice and lost four of their last six matches. In contrast, St. Louis City has shown better form with three wins in their last six outings, alongside two draws. The model also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 79%.
Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City team news
Minnesota United FC news
- A. Markanich — concussion
- A. Smir — knee injury
- P. Stroud — muscle injury
St. Louis City news
- C. Wallem — injury
- Celio Pompeu — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.53
Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings
Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Before and after this match
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 44.6% | 2.24 | +28.3% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 32.5% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| St. Louis City | 44.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.4% |
| No | 24.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 47.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 34.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 5.8% |
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City stats
Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City recent form
| Minnesota United FC |
DDLLLL |
| St. Louis City |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City season so far
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
St. Louis City record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | St. Louis City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2025-07-27 | St. Louis City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-21 | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City | US Open Cup | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | St. Louis City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2023-09-24 | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-02 | St. Louis City | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 25.2%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.85 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.70 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.84 | 2.62 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.39 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .