Orlando City SC
vs
DC United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando City SC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Orlando City SC vs DC United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs DC United
| Probability | Orlando City SC | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.5% | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| Market | 56.3% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| Final | 57.1% | 21.3% | 21.7% |
| Edge | +3.2% | -2.4% | -0.8% |
Why Orlando City SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.54.
- The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Orlando City SC vs DC United match preview
Orlando City SC enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while DC United has a lower chance at 16%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Orlando City SC, with an expected goals tally of 2.71 for Orlando and 1.35 for DC United. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 77%, and both teams are expected to score 70% of the time.
In terms of recent form, Orlando City SC has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while DC United has struggled with only one win and three draws in their recent outings. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Orlando City SC and DC United team news
Orlando City SC news
- G. Dorsey — back injury
- T. Spicer — foot injury
DC United news
- G. Segal — leg injury
- H. Kijima — leg injury
- L. Bartlett — suspended
- L. Munteanu — leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orlando City SC and DC United expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.11
Orlando City SC and DC United attack and defence ratings
Orlando City SC
DC United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
Before and after this match
Orlando City SC vs DC United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 57.1% | 1.75 | +3.2% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 57.1% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| DC United | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% |
| No | 26.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 40.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | |
| 1-1 | 7.1% |
Orlando City SC vs DC United stats
Orlando City SC and DC United recent form
| Orlando City SC |
DWLLLW |
| DC United |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orlando City SC and DC United season so far
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Orlando City SC vs DC United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | DC United | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | DC United | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Orlando City SC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2024-07-06 | Orlando City SC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 5-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | DC United | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2023-04-22 | Orlando City SC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2023-03-12 | DC United | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-31 | DC United | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-04 | Orlando City SC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 3-5 |
| 2021-10-02 | Orlando City SC | DC United | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orlando City SC vs DC United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 21.8%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.54 | 4.50 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.76 | 3.33 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .