Toronto FC
vs
Orlando City SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toronto FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
| Probability | Toronto FC | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.1% | 22.8% | 43.1% |
| Market | 39.7% | 24.0% | 36.3% |
| Final | 38.3% | 23.7% | 38.0% |
| Edge | -5.6% | -1.2% | +6.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC match preview
Toronto FC faces Orlando City SC in a matchup where both teams have shown contrasting recent form. Toronto FC has recorded three losses in their last five matches, with a win and a draw to their name. In contrast, Orlando City SC has been on a strong run, winning four of their last five games, which includes three consecutive victories. According to our model, the probabilities for this match are evenly split between the two teams at 38%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Orlando City SC, with 2.01 compared to Toronto FC's 1.79. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Orlando City SC, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, both at 73%. The head-to-head record also favors Orlando, who has won 7 of the last 10 encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC attack and defence ratings
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
Before and after this match
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 38.3% | 2.61 | -5.6% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 38.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Orlando City SC | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 65.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC stats
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC recent form
| Toronto FC |
LLLWDD |
| Orlando City SC |
LLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC season so far
Toronto FC record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Orlando City SC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Toronto FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | Orlando City SC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2024-07-03 | Toronto FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-27 | Orlando City SC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-21 | Toronto FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-04 | Orlando City SC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2022-09-17 | Orlando City SC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2022-05-14 | Toronto FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2021-07-17 | Toronto FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 24.0%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.95 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 4.00 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.92 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .