Chicago Fire
vs
Philadelphia Union
Garuda Lions Prediction: Philadelphia Union
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
| Probability | Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 21.5% | 52.9% |
| Market | 35.9% | 23.6% | 40.5% |
| Final | 33.3% | 23.1% | 43.6% |
| Edge | -10.2% | -2.2% | +12.4% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Philadelphia Union below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union match preview
Chicago Fire will face Philadelphia Union in this MLS matchup, with the probabilities indicating a 33% chance for a Chicago win, a 23% chance for a draw, and a 44% chance for a Philadelphia victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Chicago's expected goals stand at 1.58, while Philadelphia's are higher at 2.29.
In terms of recent form, Chicago Fire has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Philadelphia Union boasts an impressive six consecutive wins. The head-to-head record in the last five encounters shows Chicago with one win, one draw, and three losses against Philadelphia. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 72%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page
Before and after this match
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 43.6% | 2.30 | +12.4% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 33.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Philadelphia Union | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union stats
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union recent form
| Chicago Fire |
WWLLDD |
| Philadelphia Union |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union season so far
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Philadelphia Union | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Chicago Fire | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Philadelphia Union | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Philadelphia Union | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Chicago Fire | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 23.6%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.95 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.57 | 3.94 | 2.31 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .