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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 29

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

1 – 3 Full time

34′Mbekezeli Mbokazi
41′Jack Elliott
44′Maren Haile-Selassie
45′Jack Elliott
45′Jonathan BambaAndreas Hanche-Olsen
49′Milan Iloski
55′Bruno Damiani
57′Jesus BuenoIndiana Vassilev
67′Bruno Damiani
68′Robert LewandowskiPhilip Zinckernagel
68′Johan Arath GomezPuso Dithejane
68′Jonathan DeanLeonardo Barroso
72′Anton SaletrosSergio Oregel
80′Bruno DamianiEzekiel Kwame Alladoh
80′Cavan SullivanBenjamin Bender
85′Indiana Vassilev
88′Philip Zinckernagel
90′Quinn SullivanJaphet Sery Larsen
90′Milan IloskiMalik Jakupovic
90′Neil Pierre

Soldier Field, ChicagoReferee: Ricardo Fierro

Chicago Fire 35%
Draw 24%
Philadelphia Union 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 8
49 Possession % 51
2 Corners 7
12 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
4 Saves 3
299 Accurate passes 305

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicago FireDrawPhiladelphia Union
Model27.6%22.4%49.9%
Market36.9%24.1%39.0%
Final34.6%23.7%41.7%
Edge-2.3%-0.4%+2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.58.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Philadelphia Union below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chicago Fire ↓ / Philadelphia U → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 9% 6% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union expected goals

Chicago Fire 1.58
Philadelphia Union 2.14

Total expected goals: 3.72

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union attack and defence ratings

Chicago Fire

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.64 +64%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: result vs prediction

Chicago Fire 1 – 3 Philadelphia Union

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 41.7% 2.40 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.8% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.8% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.0% 2.00 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chicago Fire34.6%
Draw23.7%
Philadelphia Union41.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%
Both teams to scoreYes70.8%
No29.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.3%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)65.4%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win30.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss50.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.0%
1-28.8%
2-26.9%

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union stats

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union recent form

newest first
Chicago Fire WWWLLD
Philadelphia Union WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Chicago Fire wins 3Draws 5Philadelphia Union wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-11-01Chicago FirePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer0-3
2025-10-26Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-2
2025-08-23Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer4-0
2025-06-26Chicago FirePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer0-1
2024-07-04Chicago FirePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer4-3
2024-02-25Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-04-16Chicago FirePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-03-12Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-0
2022-08-13Philadelphia UnionChicago FireMajor League Soccer4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 24.1%, away 39.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.55 4.10 2.45
BetVictor 2.55 3.90 2.38
Betano 2.60 3.95 2.45
Betfair 2.55 4.10 2.38
Dafabet 2.60 3.95 2.49
Marathonbet 2.54 3.75 2.41
Pinnacle 2.68 3.86 2.46
SBO 2.48 3.62 2.32
William Hill 2.50 3.50 2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▼ -0.05
X 3.90 ▼ -0.04
2 2.41 ▲ +0.11

20 snapshots recorded, from .