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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake

2 – 1 Full time

2′Danley Jean Jacques
13′DeAndre Yedlin
23′Francis Westfield
31′Bruno Damiani
45′Sam JunquaJuan Sanabria
45′DeAndre YedlinLuc De Fougerolles
62′Dominik Marczuk
64′Indiana VassilevQuinn Sullivan
65′Aiden HezarkhaniSaba Lobjanidze
70′Dominik MarczukChadwick Zachary Booth
74′Jovan LukicJesus Bueno
79′Sergi SolansAriath Piol
80′Jesus Bueno
81′Milan Iloski
89′Bruno Damiani
90′Cavan SullivanBenjamin Bender
90′Milan IloskiMalik Jakupovic
90′Danley Jean JacquesAlejandro Bedoya
90′Saba Lobjanidze

Talen Energy Stadium, PhiladelphiaReferee: Elijio Arreguin

Philadelphia Union 72%
Draw 17%
Real Salt Lake 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
53 Possession % 47
4 Corners 3
21 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
382 Accurate passes 349

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhiladelphia UnionDrawReal Salt Lake
Model79.8%12.8%7.4%
Market69.4%18.0%12.6%
Final72.0%16.7%11.3%
Edge+2.6%-1.3%-1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Philadelphia Union below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Philadelphia U ↓ / Real Salt Lake → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 8% 3 9% 8% 4+ 15% 14%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake expected goals

Philadelphia Union 3.15
Real Salt Lake 0.95

Total expected goals: 4.11

Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.71 +71%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Real Salt Lake

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake: result vs prediction

Philadelphia Union 2 – 1 Real Salt Lake

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 72.0% 1.39 +2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.7% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.4% 1.68 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.7% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Philadelphia Union win 62.2% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Philadelphia Union72.0%
Draw16.7%
Real Salt Lake11.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.7%
Under 2.522.3%
Both teams to scoreYes59.4%
No40.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.7%
12 (either side)83.3%
X2 (draw or away)28.0%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win62.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss20.2%
Correct score (top 3)3-08.6%
3-18.2%
2-08.2%

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake stats

Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake recent form

newest first
Philadelphia Union WWWWWW
Real Salt Lake WLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake going into this match

league record before kick-off

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Salt Lake record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Philadelphia Union wins 4Draws 4Real Salt Lake wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-04-27Philadelphia UnionReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-2
2019-07-14Real Salt LakePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer4-0
2018-05-19Philadelphia UnionReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer4-1
2017-05-28Real Salt LakePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-0
2016-07-31Philadelphia UnionReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-2
2015-03-15Real Salt LakePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer3-3
2014-04-12Philadelphia UnionReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer2-2
2013-07-04Real Salt LakePhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-2
2012-08-24Philadelphia UnionReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.4%, draw 18.0%, away 12.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.36 5.00 8.00
BetVictor 1.33 5.25 7.50
Betano 1.40 5.60 7.50
Betfair 1.33 5.50 7.50
Dafabet 1.38 5.60 7.40
Marathonbet 1.35 5.15 7.10
Pinnacle 1.36 5.63 7.48
SBO 1.34 5.03 6.28
William Hill 1.36 4.80 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.36 ▲ +0.03
X 5.25 —
2 7.48 ▼ -0.22

36 snapshots recorded, from .