Philadelphia Union
vs
Real Salt Lake
Garuda Lions Prediction: Philadelphia Union
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
| Probability | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.8% | 12.8% | 7.4% |
| Market | 66.4% | 18.6% | 15.0% |
| Final | 69.7% | 17.2% | 13.1% |
| Edge | +13.3% | -5.8% | -7.6% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Philadelphia Union below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake match preview
Philadelphia Union enters this match with a strong recent form, having won their last six games. Their expected goals for this fixture stand at 3.15, indicating a potent attacking threat. The model suggests a high likelihood of a high-scoring game, with an 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and a most likely scoreline of 3-0, which has a 9% chance of occurring.
In contrast, Real Salt Lake has struggled recently, recording one win in their last six matches, with an expected goals figure of just 0.95 for this encounter. The probabilities reflect a significant advantage for Philadelphia Union, with a 69% chance of winning, compared to a 13% probability for Real Salt Lake. Additionally, there is a 59% likelihood that both teams will score.
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake team news
Philadelphia Union news
- J. Sery Larsen — yellow cards
- P. Ndinga — hamstring injury
Real Salt Lake news
- A. Katranis — groin injury
- A. Piol — achilles tendon injury
- D. Luna — knee injury
- D. Zagar — inactive
- G. Dillon — foot injury
- J. Glad — groin injury
- J. J. Arias — hamstring injury
- L. Engel — hamstring injury
- Z. Booth — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.11
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Before and after this match
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 69.7% | 1.43 | +13.3% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 69.7% |
| Draw | 17.2% | |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 62.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 20.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake stats
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake recent form
| Philadelphia Union |
WWWWWW |
| Real Salt Lake |
WLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake season so far
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-27 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2019-07-14 | Real Salt Lake | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2018-05-19 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2017-05-28 | Real Salt Lake | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2016-07-31 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2015-03-15 | Real Salt Lake | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2014-04-12 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2013-07-04 | Real Salt Lake | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2012-08-24 | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.4%, draw 18.6%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 5.18 | 6.09 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.43 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .