Major League Soccer · 2026-10-10T17:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 28

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

2 – 1 Full time

23′			Luka GavranWilliam Yarbrough
51′			Daniel Rios
55′			Brayan Vera
61′			Jonathan OsorioDjordje Mihailovic
72′			Victor LoturiSamuel Piette
72′			Alexis SanchezFabian Herbers
82′			AlonsoLewis Morgan
84′			Brandan Craig
86′			Daniel RiosWikelman·Carmona
86′			Brandan CraigEfrain Morales
87′			Luca Petrasso
90′			Lewis Morgan
90′			Djordje Mihailovic
90′			Richie Laryea

BMO Field, TorontoReferee: Allen Chapman

Toronto FC

49%

Draw

25%

CF Montreal

27%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	7
52	Possession %	48
8	Corners	6
9	Fouls	17
4	Offsides	2
6	Saves	3
273	Accurate passes	255

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Toronto FC	Draw	CF Montreal
Model	48.2%	25.3%	26.4%
Market	48.9%	24.5%	26.6%
Final	48.7%	24.7%	26.6%
Edge	-0.2%	+0.2%	-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Toronto FC

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.28.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

82%

3+ goals

59%

No goals

Toronto FC and CF Montreal expected goals

Toronto FC

1.78

CF Montreal

1.28

Total expected goals: 3.06

Toronto FC and CF Montreal attack and defence ratings

Toronto FC

Attack

0.87 -13%

Defence

1.21 +21%

CF Montreal

Attack

0.77 -23%

Defence

1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: result vs prediction

Toronto FC 2 – 1 CF Montreal

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC · 2026-10-10
Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page · 2026-10-10
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego · 2026-10-10
Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page · 2026-10-10
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Inter Miami vs DC United · 2026-10-10
Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page · 2026-10-10

Before and after this match

Toronto FC, previous: Nashville SC – Toronto FC, 2026-09-27
Toronto FC, next: Toronto FC – Orlando City SC, 2026-10-14
CF Montreal, previous: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati prediction
CF Montreal, next: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC: odds and pick

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Toronto FC	48.7%	2.05	-0.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.69	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	61.1%	1.64	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.3%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	51.8%	1.93	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Toronto FC	48.7%
	Draw	24.7%
	CF Montreal	26.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%
	Under 2.5	41.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	61.1%
	No	38.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.4%
	12 (either side)	75.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	51.3%
Handicap -1	Toronto FC win	27.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.2%
	Loss	51.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.7%
	2-1	9.5%
	2-0	7.4%

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal stats

Toronto FC and CF Montreal recent form

newest first

Toronto FC	LLLWDD
CF Montreal	WLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Toronto FC and CF Montreal going into this match

league record before kick-off

Toronto FC record

They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CF Montreal record

They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Toronto FC wins 3Draws 4CF Montreal wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-16	CF Montreal	Toronto FC	Major League Soccer	0-0
2025-08-30	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer	1-1
2025-05-17	CF Montreal	Toronto FC	Major League Soccer	1-6
2025-04-30	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Canadian Championship	2-2
2024-07-20	CF Montreal	Toronto FC	Major League Soccer	0-1
2024-05-18	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer	5-1
2023-08-20	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer	2-3
2023-05-13	CF Montreal	Toronto FC	Major League Soccer	2-0
2023-05-09	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Canadian Championship	1-2
2022-09-04	Toronto FC	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer	3-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 24.5%, away 26.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Bet365	1.95	3.80	3.60
BetVictor	1.93	3.90	3.40
Betano	2.00	3.90	3.75
Betfair	1.91	4.00	3.60
Dafabet	1.99	3.90	3.55
Marathonbet	1.89	3.74	3.58
Pinnacle	1.95	3.91	3.76
SBO	1.96	3.52	3.19
William Hill	1.85	3.60	3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.20

X 3.90 ▼ -0.06

2 3.58 ▼ -0.32

36 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-23T08:10:02Z.