Toronto FC
vs
CF Montreal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toronto FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
| Probability | Toronto FC | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 25.3% | 26.4% |
| Market | 49.3% | 24.2% | 26.5% |
| Final | 49.0% | 24.5% | 26.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.1% | -0.1% |
Why Toronto FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.28.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal match preview
Toronto FC will face CF Montreal in an intriguing matchup, with the home side holding a 49% probability of victory compared to 26% for Montreal and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Toronto FC, with a 10% likelihood. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 59%, and both teams are predicted to score, with a 61% chance.
In terms of recent form, Toronto FC has recorded three losses followed by a win, two draws, while CF Montreal is on a troubling run of six consecutive games without a win, including five losses. In their last three encounters, Toronto FC has secured one win and two draws against Montreal, who have yet to claim victory in this head-to-head. Expected goals suggest Toronto FC will score 1.78 and CF Montreal 1.28.
Toronto FC and CF Montreal team news
Toronto FC news
- D. Mihailovic — muscle injury
- N. Palacio — lower-body injury
CF Montreal news
- B. Ceballos — lower-body injury
- B. Hidalgo — groin injury
- B. Vera — lower-body injury
- D. Sealy — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toronto FC and CF Montreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Toronto FC and CF Montreal attack and defence ratings
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page
Before and after this match
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 49.0% | 2.04 | -1.0% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 49.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| CF Montreal | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal stats
Toronto FC and CF Montreal recent form
| Toronto FC |
LLLWDD |
| CF Montreal |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toronto FC and CF Montreal season so far
Toronto FC record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | CF Montreal | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | CF Montreal | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 1-6 |
| 2025-04-30 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Canadian Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-20 | CF Montreal | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-18 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 5-1 |
| 2023-08-20 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2023-05-13 | CF Montreal | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-09 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Canadian Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-04 | Toronto FC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 24.2%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.90 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.74 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.88 | 3.60 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 3.31 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .