Chicago Fire
vs
New York City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chicago Fire
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
| Probability | Chicago Fire | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 27.3% | 25.6% |
| Market | 51.9% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Final | 50.7% | 24.9% | 24.5% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +3.2% | +1.6% |
Why Chicago Fire
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC match preview
Chicago Fire will face New York City FC in an upcoming Major League Soccer match on October 10, 2026. According to the model probabilities, Chicago Fire has a 51% chance of winning, while both a draw and a New York City FC victory are each at 25%. The expected goals for Chicago Fire stand at 1.59, compared to New York City FC's 1.12, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Chicago Fire has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and two additional draws in their last six matches. Conversely, New York City FC has had a mixed run with two draws, one win, and three losses in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Chicago Fire, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC team news
Chicago Fire news
- A. Franco — knee injury
New York City FC news
- A. Farnos — injury
- D. Baiera — knee injury
- K. Parks — injury
- K. Trewin — ankle injury
- M. Moralez — knee injury
- Talles Magno — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Chicago Fire and New York City FC attack and defence ratings
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page
Before and after this match
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 50.7% | 1.97 | -4.8% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 50.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| New York City FC | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chicago Fire win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC stats
Chicago Fire and New York City FC recent form
| Chicago Fire |
WWLLDD |
| New York City FC |
DLWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC season so far
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Fire | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-25 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-14 | Chicago Fire | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-22 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Chicago Fire | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Chicago Fire | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2022-05-22 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-27 | New York City FC | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 24.1%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.98 | 3.98 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.32 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .