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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

2 – 1 Full time

19′Hannes Wolf
20′Djé D'Avilla
43′Djé D'Avilla
45′Jonathan BambaMauricio Pineda
45′Nico CavalloKevin O'Toole
55′Anton Saletros
60′Alonso MartinezLuighi Hanri Sousa Santos
60′Andrés PereaRaul Bicalho
64′Mbekezeli Mbokazi
71′Philip ZinckernagelPuso Dithejane
71′Robert LewandowskiJohan Arath Gomez
71′Leonardo BarrosoNoah Allen
75′Agustin OjedaBénie Adama Traoré
76′James SandsJonathan Shore
82′Hannes WolfMalachi Jones
87′Maren Haile-Selassie
90′Mauricio Pineda
90′Maren Haile-SelassieAndreas Hanche-Olsen

Soldier Field, ChicagoReferee: Brandon Stevis

Chicago Fire 49%
Draw 25%
New York City FC 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
47 Possession % 53
4 Corners 4
18 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 2
5 Saves 2
297 Accurate passes 336

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicago FireDrawNew York City FC
Model47.1%27.3%25.6%
Market49.3%24.8%25.9%
Final48.7%25.5%25.8%
Edge-0.6%+0.6%-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Chicago Fire

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chicago Fire ↓ / New York City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Chicago Fire and New York City FC expected goals

Chicago Fire 1.59
New York City FC 1.12

Total expected goals: 2.71

Chicago Fire and New York City FC attack and defence ratings

Chicago Fire

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.97 -3%

New York City FC

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: result vs prediction

Chicago Fire 2 – 1 New York City FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chicago Fire 48.7% 2.05 -0.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.9% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.9% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chicago Fire48.7%
Draw25.5%
New York City FC25.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%
Both teams to scoreYes54.9%
No45.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.2%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)51.3%
Handicap -1Chicago Fire win25.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss52.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
2-19.4%
1-09.4%

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC stats

Chicago Fire and New York City FC recent form

newest first
Chicago Fire WWLLDD
New York City FC DLWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chicago Fire and New York City FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New York City FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Chicago Fire wins 3Draws 7New York City FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-25New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-1
2025-09-14Chicago FireNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-3
2025-05-25New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-1
2024-08-24New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer2-2
2024-07-14Chicago FireNew York City FCMajor League Soccer0-0
2023-10-22New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-03-05Chicago FireNew York City FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2022-08-21Chicago FireNew York City FCMajor League Soccer0-2
2022-05-22New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-0
2021-10-27New York City FCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 24.8%, away 25.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.95 3.75 3.70
BetVictor 1.80 3.90 3.90
Betano 1.98 3.95 3.80
Betfair 1.91 3.90 3.70
Dafabet 1.96 3.85 3.70
Marathonbet 1.85 3.78 3.70
Pinnacle 1.96 3.94 3.69
SBO 1.94 3.48 3.28
William Hill 1.80 3.60 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.94 ▲ +0.19
X 3.85 ▼ -0.07
2 3.70 ▼ -0.20

36 snapshots recorded, from .