Charlotte
vs
FC Dallas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charlotte
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Charlotte vs FC Dallas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlotte vs FC Dallas
| Probability | Charlotte | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 24.9% | 22.2% |
| Market | 41.1% | 25.6% | 33.3% |
| Final | 44.1% | 25.4% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +11.8% | -0.6% | -11.1% |
Why Charlotte
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.13.
- The market prices Charlotte below the model: +11.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Charlotte vs FC Dallas match preview
In the upcoming match between Charlotte and FC Dallas, the model indicates a 46% probability of a Charlotte victory, while FC Dallas has a 29% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Charlotte, with a 10% probability. The expectation for goals is relatively high, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 57% and both teams likely to score at 58%.
Recent form shows Charlotte with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-D-W, while FC Dallas is in strong form with W-D-W-W-W-D. Expected goals suggest Charlotte is favored with 1.84 compared to FC Dallas's 1.13. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in these predictions.
Charlotte and FC Dallas team news
Charlotte news
- A. Goodwin — foot injury
- A. John — upper-body injury
- B. Bronico — lower-body injury
- N. Berchimas — foot injury
- T. Ream — suspended
FC Dallas news
- Daniel — leg injury
- Geovane Jesus — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charlotte and FC Dallas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Charlotte and FC Dallas attack and defence ratings
Charlotte
FC Dallas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Before and after this match
Charlotte vs FC Dallas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 44.1% | 2.27 | +11.8% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 44.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| FC Dallas | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Charlotte vs FC Dallas stats
Charlotte and FC Dallas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlotte and FC Dallas season so far
Charlotte record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Dallas record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Charlotte vs FC Dallas head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Charlotte vs FC Dallas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 25.6%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.66 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.89 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.32 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .