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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC

4 – 2 Full time

11′Milan Iloski
12′Eduard Atuesta
19′Milan Iloski
37′Iago Teodoro
43′Joran Gerbet
47′Indiana Vassilev
51′Milan Iloski
54′Bernardo RheinHarvey Graham Sarajian
54′Joran GerbetLuis Otávio Costa de Aquino
54′Zakaria TaifiVinicius Nogueira
62′Quinn Sullivan
77′Japhet Sery Larsen
78′Iván Angulo
79′Quinn SullivanAlejandro Bedoya
79′Milan IloskiAgustin Anello
84′Iván Angulo
85′Bruno DamianiEzekiel Kwame Alladoh
85′Indiana VassilevJeremy Rafanello
89′Daryl DikeTiago Souza de Jesús Carvalho
90′Martin Ojeda
90′Benjamin BenderJordan Griffin

Talen Energy Stadium, PhiladelphiaReferee: Sergii Demianchuk

Philadelphia Union 65%
Draw 18%
Orlando City SC 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 2
36 Possession % 64
7 Corners 7
19 Fouls 13
5 Offsides 1
0 Saves 5
229 Accurate passes 477

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhiladelphia UnionDrawOrlando City SC
Model66.7%16.9%16.4%
Market65.0%18.7%16.3%
Final65.4%18.3%16.4%
Edge+1.7%-1.8%+0.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 1.48.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Philadelphia U ↓ / Orlando City S → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 8% 6% 3 8% 4+ 8% 11% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC expected goals

Philadelphia Union 2.93
Orlando City SC 1.48

Total expected goals: 4.41

Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC attack and defence ratings

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.66 +66%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC: result vs prediction

Philadelphia Union 4 – 2 Orlando City SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 65.4% 1.53 +1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.6% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.6% 1.36 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.6% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Philadelphia Union win 47.8% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Philadelphia Union65.4%
Draw18.3%
Orlando City SC16.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.6%
Under 2.518.4%
Both teams to scoreYes73.6%
No26.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.6%
12 (either side)81.7%
X2 (draw or away)34.6%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win47.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss33.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.7%
3-17.5%
1-15.8%

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC stats

Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC recent form

newest first
Philadelphia Union WWWWWD
Orlando City SC LWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orlando City SC record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Philadelphia Union wins 2Draws 5Orlando City SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer4-3
2025-04-05Philadelphia UnionOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer0-0
2025-02-23Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-4
2024-10-02Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-05-11Philadelphia UnionOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer2-3
2023-06-21Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-03-25Philadelphia UnionOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2022-09-10Philadelphia UnionOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer5-1
2022-07-23Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer0-1
2022-05-10Orlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionUS Open Cup2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 18.7%, away 16.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.48 5.00 5.75
BetVictor 1.44 5.00 5.75
Betano 1.50 5.20 6.10
Betfair 1.44 5.00 5.50
Marathonbet 1.43 5.00 5.70
Pinnacle 1.48 5.27 5.78
SBO 1.40 4.84 5.32
William Hill 1.44 4.75 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.06
X 5.00 ▲ +0.45
2 5.72 ▲ +0.27

18 snapshots recorded, from .