DC United
vs
New York Red Bulls
Garuda Lions Prediction: DC United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
DC United vs New York Red Bulls overview
Garuda Lions analysis: DC United vs New York Red Bulls
| Probability | DC United | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 28.8% | 22.7% |
| Market | 53.2% | 23.5% | 23.3% |
| Final | 52.0% | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| Edge | -4.6% | +5.3% | -0.6% |
Why DC United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.94.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls match preview
DC United is projected to have a 52% chance of winning against New York Red Bulls, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. The expected goals for DC United stand at 1.48, while New York Red Bulls are expected to score 0.94. Recent form shows DC United with mixed results, recording D-L-D-W-D-L, while New York Red Bulls have struggled, with L-W-W-L-D-L in their last six matches.
In terms of overall probabilities, there is a 25% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a New York Red Bulls victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43%, and both teams scoring is at 48%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows one win each for both teams and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
DC United and New York Red Bulls expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
DC United and New York Red Bulls attack and defence ratings
DC United
New York Red Bulls
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
Before and after this match
DC United vs New York Red Bulls markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | DC United | 52.0% | 1.92 | -4.6% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | DC United | 52.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| New York Red Bulls | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | DC United win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
DC United vs New York Red Bulls stats
DC United and New York Red Bulls recent form
| DC United |
DLDWDL |
| New York Red Bulls |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
DC United and New York Red Bulls season so far
DC United record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | New York Red Bulls | DC United | Major League Soccer | 4-4 |
| 2025-05-24 | DC United | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | New York Red Bulls | DC United | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.2%, draw 23.5%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 3.94 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .