New York Red Bulls
vs
Toronto FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: New York Red Bulls
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.8% | 26.3% | 30.0% |
| Market | 53.5% | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Final | 51.1% | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| Edge | -9.7% | +4.1% | +5.6% |
Why New York Red Bulls
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC match preview
In the upcoming match between New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC, the model gives New York Red Bulls a 46% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Toronto FC victory are rated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of New York Red Bulls, with an expected goals tally of 1.57 for them and 1.15 for Toronto FC. Additionally, there is a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows New York Red Bulls with a mixed record of W-L-W-W-L-D, while Toronto FC has a slightly better recent performance with W-L-L-L-W-D. In their last three head-to-head encounters, New York Red Bulls have secured 1 win, with the other two matches ending in draws, while Toronto FC has not won any of those matches. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC team news
New York Red Bulls news
- A. Marcucci — knee injury
Toronto FC news
- B. Kuscevic — yellow cards
- N. Palacio — lower-body injury
- R. Laryea — yellow cards
- W. Zimmerman — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 51.1% | 1.96 | -9.7% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 51.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Toronto FC | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | New York Red Bulls win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC stats
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
LWLWWL |
| Toronto FC |
DWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC season so far
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-02 | Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-4 |
| 2024-07-28 | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | Leagues Cup | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-22 | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-17 | Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2022-06-18 | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2022-03-05 | Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.5%, draw 23.7%, away 28.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.33 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 4.20 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.57 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.38 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .