Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Philadelphia Union
vs
Charlotte
2 – 2 Full time
Philadelphia Union
67%
Draw
18%
Charlotte
15%
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
| Probability | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| Market | 66.3% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| Final | 66.7% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
77%
No goals
2%
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte expected goals
Philadelphia Union
2.77
Charlotte
1.29
Total expected goals: 4.06
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte attack and defence ratings
Philadelphia Union
Attack
1.67 +67%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Charlotte
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte: result vs prediction
Philadelphia Union 2 – 2 Charlotte
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Before and after this match
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 66.7% | 1.50 | +1.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 66.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Charlotte | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 48.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte stats
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte recent form
| Philadelphia Union |
WWWWWW |
| Charlotte |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte going into this match
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlotte record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Philadelphia Union wins
2Draws
4Charlotte wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Charlotte | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Charlotte | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-28 | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte | Leagues Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-06-22 | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-25 | Charlotte | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-20 | Charlotte | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-31 | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-01 | Charlotte | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2022-04-03 | Philadelphia Union | Charlotte | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.5%, draw 18.6%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 5.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.25 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.10 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 5.49 | 6.17 |
| SBO | 1.42 | 4.25 | 4.81 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.40 ▼ -0.15
X
5.10 ▲ +0.60
2
6.00 ▲ +1.00
12 snapshots recorded, from .