St. Louis City
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Probability | St. Louis City | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.8% | 21.7% | 23.5% |
| Market | 34.0% | 25.2% | 40.8% |
| Final | 39.2% | 24.3% | 36.5% |
| Edge | +20.9% | -3.5% | -17.3% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +20.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps match preview
St. Louis City faces Vancouver Whitecaps in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. St. Louis City holds a 39% chance of winning, while Vancouver Whitecaps has a 36% probability. Recent form shows St. Louis City with three wins in their last five matches, contrasting with Vancouver's mixed results, including three losses in their last five games.
The expected goals suggest a favorable attacking performance for St. Louis City at 2.25, compared to Vancouver's 1.45. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last eight encounters, Vancouver has the edge with four wins, while St. Louis has secured two victories and there have been two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps attack and defence ratings
St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page
Before and after this match
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 39.2% | 2.55 | +20.9% | 2.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 39.2% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 45.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps stats
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
| St. Louis City |
WWLWDW |
| Vancouver Whitecaps |
LDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps season so far
St. Louis City record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps record
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-20 | St. Louis City | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-14 | St. Louis City | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer | 1-4 |
| 2024-06-30 | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2023-10-05 | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-28 | St. Louis City | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-12 | Vancouver Whitecaps | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 25.2%, away 40.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.70 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.85 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.70 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .