Columbus Crew
vs
St. Louis City
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City
| Probability | Columbus Crew | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 25.9% | 39.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.9% | 25.9% | 39.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why St. Louis City
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City match preview
Columbus Crew faces St. Louis City in the US Open Cup with both teams showing varying recent form. Columbus Crew has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while St. Louis City has fared better with four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. The model predicts a close contest, giving Columbus Crew a 35% chance of winning, a 26% probability of a draw, and St. Louis City a 39% chance of victory.
The expected goals for the match are 1.51 for Columbus Crew and 1.61 for St. Louis City, indicating a potentially competitive game. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 60% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Columbus Crew and St. Louis City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Columbus Crew and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings
Columbus Crew
St. Louis City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Columbus Crew | 34.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| St. Louis City | 39.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City stats
Columbus Crew and St. Louis City recent form
| Columbus Crew |
WWLLLW |
| St. Louis City |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-13 | St. Louis City | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.