Austin
vs
Portland Timbers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portland Timbers
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Portland Timbers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Austin vs Portland Timbers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austin vs Portland Timbers
| Probability | Austin | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.8% | 23.2% | 45.0% |
| Market | 22.4% | 22.2% | 55.4% |
| Final | 24.8% | 22.4% | 52.8% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.3% | -2.6% |
Why Portland Timbers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 52.8% × 1.75 − 1).
Austin vs Portland Timbers match preview
Austin faces Portland Timbers in an intriguing matchup, with the probabilities indicating a competitive contest. Austin has a 35% chance of winning, while Portland Timbers are slightly favored at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 71% likelihood, and there is a 70% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Austin has struggled, recording five losses in their last six matches, while Portland Timbers have shown more resilience with two wins in their last three games. The expected goals for Austin stand at 1.72, compared to Portland Timbers' 1.89, suggesting a closely contested match where both teams have the potential to find the back of the net.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Austin and Portland Timbers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Austin and Portland Timbers attack and defence ratings
Austin
Portland Timbers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
Before and after this match
Austin vs Portland Timbers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portland Timbers | 52.8% | 1.89 | -2.6% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 24.8% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Portland Timbers | 52.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portland Timbers win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Austin vs Portland Timbers stats
Austin and Portland Timbers recent form
| Austin |
LLWLLL |
| Portland Timbers |
WWWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austin and Portland Timbers season so far
Austin record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austin vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Austin | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-03 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-30 | Austin | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-18 | Austin | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-07 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2022-09-01 | Austin | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-03-13 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-07 | Portland Timbers | Austin | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austin vs Portland Timbers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.4%, draw 22.2%, away 55.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 4.45 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.33 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.40 | 1.72 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 4.25 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 4.17 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| SBO | 3.68 | 3.81 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .