San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Colorado Rapids
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
| Probability | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.7% | 28.9% | 25.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.7% | 28.9% | 25.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why San Jose Earthquakes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids match preview
The upcoming match between San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids sees the Earthquakes favored with a 46% probability of winning, while the Rapids hold a 25% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of San Jose, with an expected goals tally of 1.45 for the Earthquakes compared to 1.02 for the Rapids. Both teams have shown inconsistent recent form, with San Jose recording three draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Colorado has struggled with three draws and three losses.
In their last ten encounters, both teams have shown competitive parity, each securing four wins along with two draws. The model indicates a 50% chance that both teams will score and a 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids attack and defence ratings
San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
- Austin v Real Salt Lake — match page
- St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 45.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Colorado Rapids | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Jose Earthquakes win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 54.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids stats
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids recent form
| San Jose Earthquakes |
DDDWDW |
| Colorado Rapids |
DDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids season so far
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Rapids record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | US Open Cup | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2024-04-14 | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | 0-3 |
| 2023-06-04 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-15 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2022-05-08 | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.