San Diego
vs
Houston Dynamo
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Diego
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
| Probability | San Diego | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.5% | 29.6% | 35.0% |
| Market | 48.8% | 24.6% | 26.6% |
| Final | 45.5% | 25.8% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -13.4% | +5.0% | +8.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo match preview
San Diego faces Houston Dynamo in an upcoming Major League Soccer match with San Diego holding a 45% probability of winning compared to Houston's 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to have similar offensive outputs, with expected goals of 1.25 for San Diego and 1.24 for Houston Dynamo.
In terms of recent form, San Diego has struggled with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Houston Dynamo has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses. Historically, in their last three encounters, San Diego has one win, while Houston Dynamo has secured two victories. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Diego and Houston Dynamo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
San Diego and Houston Dynamo attack and defence ratings
San Diego
Houston Dynamo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Before and after this match
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 45.5% | 2.20 | -13.4% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 45.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Houston Dynamo | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 64.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo stats
San Diego and Houston Dynamo recent form
| San Diego |
DDLLLW |
| Houston Dynamo |
LDLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Diego and Houston Dynamo season so far
San Diego record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Houston Dynamo record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Houston Dynamo | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Houston Dynamo | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
| 2025-07-06 | San Diego | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.8%, draw 24.6%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.78 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .